As novel coronavirus fears have essentially shut down daily life in many areas and forced sports leagues around the globe to cancel play and suspend operations, the International Olympic Committee has been resolute in its insistence that this summer’s Tokyo Olympics will be held on schedule. But even as IOC President Thomas Bach continues to state his confidence for a July-August schedule, those familiar with the process of planning and staging an Olympic Games say the IOC surely is exploring alternatives — and is probably well-aware that no perfect solutions exist.
A cancellation is the least desirable option, and staging a Summer Games with no spectators seems increasingly impractical. That makes a postponement, by either a few months or even a full year, the most likely scenario if efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus don’t show signs of progress soon — but even that is rife with complications.
“This is all frightening new territory for the IOC,” said Ed Hula, editor and founder of Around the Rings, who has been covering the Olympic movement and the business of the Games for nearly three decades.
On Tuesday, the same day a top Japanese Olympic official said he tested positive for the virus, the IOC had planned telephone calls with National Olympic Committees and other stakeholders, reaffirming the organization’s intention to proceed on schedule. The governing body issued a statement later in the day, saying the pandemic was “an unprecedented situation for the whole world” but “there is no need for any drastic decisions at this stage; and any speculation at this moment would be counterproductive.”
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has similarly said the Tokyo Games will take place as scheduled, and he has no immediate plans to declare a state of emergency. But many in Japan have their doubts. A poll released Monday by Kyodo News found that seven in 10 people there do not expect the Olympics to take place this summer as planned.