By Dave Hunter for RRCA
2020 U.S. Olympic Team Trials Marathon Trials pre-race analysis for the men’s race
82 total athletes from Colorado have qualified for the US Olympic men’s and women’s team trials marathon – more than any other USATF association!
On February 29th – dubbed by many as “Leap Day” – hordes of finely-tuned American men and women will take to the Atlanta streets to compete in the 2020 USA Olympic Team Marathon Trials. The task here – the first of two pre-race pieces on the men’s and women’s Olympic Marathon Trials – is to analyze the field, forecast who the top performers will be, and predict the athletes who will represent the USA in this summer’s Olympic Games marathon races in Japan. The men who make the Olympic team will be the top 3 finishers.
An accurate prognostication is virtually impossible in this 26 mile 385 yard event where anything can happen (and almost always does), the weather on race day is unknown, and the event boasts a field containing nearly all of the country’s best athletes who have trained in solitude, hidden any physical tweaks or aches, and – for many – purposely haven’t raced a marathon in quite a while. One would have to be very good to get it right. Just a little bit of luck will help make these predictions look wiser than deserved . Here goes:
The Favorites: There are two entrants who have authored superior bodies of workthat separate them from the other competitors:
- Galen Rupp / Qualifier: 2:06:07 Prague 2018: The 33-year-old Rupp is doubtless one of the greatest American distance runners of all time. With 9 national outdoor titles in the 5,000 and the 10,000, Galen has dominated on the track. In capturing silver in the 10,000 in the ’12 Olympics, bronze in the marathon in the ’16 Games, and gold in the 2017 Chicago Marathon, Rupp has shown he can perform at his finest on the big stages. The American record holder at 10,000 [26:44.36] is the #2 athlete on the all-time USA list for both the half marathon [59:47] and marathon [2:06:07] and can handle any race pace. A key question is how will Rupp be impacted by last summer’s ban of his long-time coach Alberto Salazar? In October, Rupp DNF’d in the Chicago Marathon. Will his mental approach be intact in Atlanta?
- Leonard Korir / Qualifier: 2:07:56 Amsterdam 2019: With PR’s of 59:52 in the half and 2:07:56 [the fastest marathon debut ever by an American] in last fall’s Amsterdam Marathon, the 33-year-old Korir has shown he can race with Rupp. Korir posted several impressive road wins in 2019 but finished 13th in the Doha 10,000 final behind Rupp [5th]. In a close, hard-fought street battle, Korir may struggle matching the leg speed of the faster competitors over the final miles.
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